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2024/05/14 14:00 Chair Hsiao-Chung Tsai（Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University）
Seminar
Poster： ╱ Post date：2024-05-07NCU IHOS Seminar Announcement
Speaker：Associate Prof. and Chair Hsiao-Chung Tsai
Place：S-325, Science Building 1
Abstract：
Title：Week-1 to Week-4 Typhoon Forecasts Using the ECMWF Ensemble: Formation, Track, Intensity, and Precipitation
Speaker：Associate Prof. and Chair Hsiao-Chung Tsai
Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University
Time：05/14（Tue.）14：00
Place：S-325, Science Building 1
Abstract：
This study uses the ECMWF 46-day ensemble model to evaluate the subseasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific, including TC formation, track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts. TC formations and the subsequent tracks are objectively detected in both real-time forecasts and also the 20-year ECMWF reforecasts. Additionally, a spatial-temporal track clustering technique is utilized to group similar vortex tracks in the 101-member real-time forecasts. The forecast verification focuses on evaluating the influence of large-scale environmental factors on TC forecast skills during weeks 1-4, such as the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon (WNPSM), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). Better TC forecast skills are observed if model initialized on MJO Phases 6 and 7 for the week-1 forecasts, and on MJO Phases 4 and 5 for the weeks 2 and 3 forecasts. Also, TC forecast skills are better if the cumulative percentage of the WNPSM index (Wang et al. 2001) is larger than 60%. This study also investigats the TC precipitation forecast skill around Taiwan area.
The evaluation results obtained from this study has been integrated into the TC Tracker 2.0 system developed by Central Weather Administration (CWA). This system can generate a "Subseasonal TC Threat Potential Forecast" product to assist in disaster mitigation and water resources management for the Water Resources Agency. Also, forecasters at PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration) are using the outputs from our system to generate their “TC Threat Potential” forecast product. This product is part of the collaboration between PAGASA and CWA through the VOTE (Volcano, Ocean, Typhoon/Tsunami, and Earthquake) Project. More details about the subseasonal TC forecast verifications and applications will be presented in this talk.
Last modification time：2024-05-07 PM 2:17
