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107/10/16 14:00 台灣颱風洪水研究中心何瑞益副研究員 演講
演講公告
張貼人：網站管理員 ╱ 公告日期：2018-10-09演 講 公 告
主講人：何瑞益 副研究員
地點：中央大學科學一館S-325教室
摘要：
講題：Development of physically-based hydrological model for shallow landslide prediction
主講人：何瑞益 副研究員
台灣颱風洪水研究中心
時間：10月16日（星期二）下午2點
地點：中央大學科學一館S-325教室
摘要：
Heavy rainfall brought by typhoons has been recognized as a major trigger of landslides in Taiwan. On average, three or four typhoons strike the island every year, and cause large amounts of shallow landslides in mountainous region. A shallow landslide prediction model based on geomorphology-based hydrological model and infinite-slope model was developed. In considering detail topographic characteristics of the subcatchment, the proposed model can estimate the change of saturated water level during rainstorms, and then link with the slope instability analysis to clarify whether shallow landslides can occur in the subcatchment.
The subcatchment on No. 9A Highway at 10.2 K was selected as the test sites for landslide predictions. Hydrological data and landslide observed records from 2010 to 2017 were used to verify the applicability of the model. Three indexes including the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and threat score (TS) are adopted to assess the performance of the model. The results indicated that the POD for the landslide prediction by using the proposed model is 1.00, the FAR is 0.25, and the TS is 0.53. It is promising to apply the proposed model for shallow landslide early warnings to reduce the loss of life and property.
Keywords: geomorphology-based hydrological model; infinite-slope model; saturated water level
最後修改時間：2018-10-09 PM 2:55
