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107/10/05 14:00 成功大學水利及海洋工程學系曾宏偉博士 演講
演講公告
張貼人：網站管理員 ╱ 公告日期：2018-09-28演 講 公 告
主講人：曾宏偉 博士
地點：中央大學科學一館S-325教室
摘要：
講題：Drought Risk Assessment and Management under Climate Change Scenarios
主講人：曾宏偉 博士
成功大學水利及海洋工程學系
時間：10月5日（星期五）下午2點
地點：中央大學科學一館S-325教室
摘要：
In Taiwan, the national average annual precipitation is approximately 2,500 mm which mainly comes from Mei-Yu fronts (i.e., stratiform precipitation) and typhoon events. Even though the total amount of precipitation is abundant, its temporal distribution is very uneven. Hence, the excess rainfall collected during wet seasons has to be stored in reservoir systems in order to provide acceptable water supply during dry seasons. However, in recent years, demand for more water has been increasing because of industrial development and population growth, and the hydrologic variability (i.e., extreme weather) has increased possibly because of the impact of climatic change. Together, these factors have added significant stress to water resources systems of Taiwan. This motivates drought risk assessment and management under climate change scenarios.
This study aims to assess the drought risk of Tsengwen-Wusanto reservoir system, located in southern Taiwan, under various climate change scenarios. Furthermore, a number of factors below are also taken into account for investigating their impact on drought risk: reservoir storage and normal pool level. Overall, in terms of the impact of three factors on drought risk, the results suggest that the most influential factor is climate change followed by reservoir storage and normal pool level is the least influential factor.
Since the potential risk was identified through drought risk assessment, a drought early warning and preparedness framework was then proposed as drought risk management strategy. Some empirical standardized drought indexes (ESDI) based on rainfall, runoff and reservoir storage were used to characterize and monitor drought condition for the reservoir system. The study analyzed the relationship between the time series of ESDI and historical drought events (water shortage) to decide the critical threshold value (CTV) of ESDI. The CTV of ESDI is considered as a trigger for drought early warning and preparedness. Once the value of ESDI reaches the CTV, the actions of providing back-up water supply and water rationing can be immediately adopted for easing the impact of subsequent drought events.
Keywords: climate change, drought risk assessment, drought risk management.
最後修改時間：2018-09-28 AM 10:06
